As the college football season reaches its midpoint, the Big 12 conference remains a hotbed of competition, with teams jostling for position in what could be one of the most unpredictable seasons in recent memory. But here's where it gets controversial: ESPN's latest Football Power Index (FPI) rankings have shaken things up, leaving fans and analysts alike debating the true contenders. Let’s dive into the rankings, explore the surprises, and uncover the stories behind the numbers—because this is the part most people miss.
ESPN’s FPI, a metric that evaluates team strength through 20,000 simulations, was updated this Tuesday following a wild Week 7 in the Big 12. The results? A reshuffling of the deck, with some teams soaring and others stumbling. Here’s the breakdown of the top 10, with insights that might just challenge your assumptions.
1. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-0, 3-0) – 18.0 (+1.6)
Texas Tech remains undefeated after a commanding 42-17 homecoming win over Kansas in Lubbock. Their FPI rating climbed to 18.0, solidifying their position as the Big 12’s top dog. With a projected record of 11.5-1.4, the Red Raiders have a 58.4% chance to win the conference and a 69.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff. But here’s the kicker: Are they truly as dominant as the numbers suggest, or is their schedule masking potential weaknesses? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments.
2. Utah Utes (5-1, 2-1) – 16.3 (+2.5)
Utah leapfrogged into second place after a 42-10 rout of Arizona State, despite the Sun Devils missing their starting quarterback. Their +2.5 rating boost was the largest in the conference this week. However, their lone loss—a 34-10 blowout to Texas Tech—raises questions about their ceiling. With a projected 9.5-2.9 record, they’re still in the hunt, but can they overcome that early stumble? Controversial take: Utah’s rise might be more about Arizona State’s fall than their own merit. Agree or disagree?
3. BYU Cougars (6-0, 3-0) – 14.8 (+0.3)
BYU remains undefeated after a thrilling 33-27 double-overtime win at Tucson. Yet, their FPI rating only ticked up by +0.3, allowing Utah to surpass them. The Cougars’ projected 9.8-2.6 record gives them a 17.4% chance to win the Big 12, second only to Texas Tech. But here’s the part most people miss: BYU’s schedule has been relatively soft so far. Can they sustain this momentum against tougher opponents?
4. TCU Horned Frogs (4-2, 1-2) – 9.8 (-1.6)
TCU’s rating took a hit after a 41-28 loss to Kansas State, dropping them to 4-2 overall. Despite their talent, two conference losses in three weeks have dimmed their championship hopes. With a projected 7.6-4.5 record, their chances of winning the Big 12 or making the CFP are now below 1%. Controversial question: Is TCU’s season already a lost cause, or can they still turn things around?
5. Iowa State Cyclones (5-2, 2-2) – 9.1 (-0.6)
Iowa State’s rating dipped after a 24-17 loss at Colorado, their second straight defeat. Once 5-0, the Cyclones now face a projected 8-4 record, with just a 5.4% chance to win the Big 12. But here’s where it gets interesting: Their early-season success suggests they have the tools to rebound. Are they just hitting a rough patch, or is this a sign of deeper issues?
6. Kansas Jayhawks (4-3, 2-2) – 8.5 (-1.7)
Kansas suffered their worst loss of the season, a 42-17 blowout to Texas Tech, causing their FPI rating to plummet by -1.7. With a projected 6.8-5.2 record, their chances of winning the conference or making the CFP are now a mere 0.2%. Controversial take: The Jayhawks’ early-season promise was a mirage. Do you agree, or can they still salvage their season?
7. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1, 3-0) – 8.1 (-)
Cincinnati has been one of the season’s biggest surprises, winning five straight since their opener loss to Nebraska. At 3-0 in conference play, they’re undefeated alongside Texas Tech and BYU. However, their FPI rating remained unchanged at 8.1. With a projected 8.3-4.0 record, they have a 5.4% chance to win the Big 12. But here’s the part most people miss: Cincy’s success might be unsustainable given their remaining schedule. What’s your take?
8. Kansas State Wildcats (3-4, 2-2) – 7.7 (+1.1)
Kansas State has turned things around after a 1-3 start, winning two of their last three, including a 41-28 upset of TCU. Their FPI rating improved by +1.1, but their projected 5.5-6.5 record suggests a losing season. Controversial question: Are the Wildcats a sleeping giant, or is their recent success just a fluke?
9. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-2, 2-1) – 6.5 (-2.7)
Arizona State took the biggest FPI hit this week, dropping two spots after a 42-10 loss to Utah. Without QB Sam Leavitt, their offense struggled. With a projected 7.2-4.9 record, their chances of repeating last season’s success are slim. But here’s where it gets controversial: Was their early-season success overhyped? Let us know your thoughts.
10. Baylor Bears (4-2, 2-1) – 6.1 (+0.4)
Baylor rounds out the top 10 with a slight FPI improvement despite coming off a bye. Their projected 6.8-5.3 record gives them just a 0.6% chance to win the Big 12. Controversial take: Baylor’s season is already a disappointment. Agree or disagree?
The rest of the Big 12 rankings include Arizona (11th), Colorado (12th), UCF (13th), Houston (14th), West Virginia (15th), and Oklahoma State (16th). Each team has its own story, but the real drama lies in the top 10. And this is the part most people miss: The Big 12’s unpredictability means any team could rise or fall dramatically in the coming weeks. Who do you think will emerge as the true contender? Share your predictions in the comments—let’s spark some debate!
