In a surprising turn of events, billionaire Andrej Babis has emerged victorious in the recent parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic. Although his populist party, ANO, did not secure an outright majority, preliminary results indicate they garnered just under 35% of the votes, granting them 81 out of 200 seats in the lower house of parliament.
Babis, who previously held the position of prime minister from 2017 to 2021, is now poised to initiate discussions about forming a new governing coalition.
This election outcome, while expected in many ways, raises numerous questions for the future of Czech politics. It was widely anticipated that the existing centre-right coalition would falter, and there was little doubt regarding Babis securing the top spot. However, few predicted that he would amass sufficient seats for a solo governance stint.
So, what’s the next step?
Babis is set to commence coalition talks immediately, possibly as soon as tonight. He will be engaging with two smaller right-leaning eurosceptic parties that crossed the 5% voting threshold: the anti-Green Deal party, Motorists for Themselves, and the anti-immigrant Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, led by the Czech-Japanese entrepreneur Tomio Okamura.
To establish a majority government, Babis will likely need to form an alliance with both of these parties. The ANO party shares several ideological alignments with the Motorists, as they are already part of the same European Parliament faction, the "pro-sovereignty" Patriots for Europe, which Babis co-founded last year with leaders from Hungary and Austria.
Both ANO and the Motorists are critical of the EU's emissions regulations and are committed to either revising or entirely dismissing those targets. Additionally, both parties share a common stance against placing a heavier financial burden on Czech families for cleaner energy solutions and oppose the EU's plan to ban the sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles after 2035.
However, relationships with the SPD may prove to be more complicated. The SPD entered this election as part of a formal alliance with various far-right fringe parties, which means they will have to distribute some of their seats among these groups. Furthermore, Okamura may not have complete oversight over the members of his caucus—often a troublesome aspect in coalition governance.
It's important to note that Babis has firmly rejected the idea of holding a referendum regarding EU or NATO membership—issues that are of paramount importance to the SPD supporters. Circumstantially, in the closing days of the campaign, Babis increased his anti-Ukrainian sentiments, criticizing the current centre-right government for prioritizing Ukrainian support over the needs of "Czech mothers".
Nevertheless, Okamura's push for the mass deportation of Ukrainian refugees is unlikely to resonate with the broader public or to influence Babis's decisions.
Ultimately, Babis may find it preferable to lead a minority government, supported informally by the Motorists and the SPD, as he navigates the complexities of the current political landscape.
