Have you noticed your favorite Disney shows looking a little… less popular lately? Turns out, a major battle between Disney and YouTube TV might be to blame, and it's hitting ABC's ratings hard. When Disney and YouTube TV couldn't agree on a deal, Disney-owned channels like ABC, ESPN, and others vanished from YouTube TV on October 31st. This is a big deal because YouTube TV isn't some small player; it boasts roughly 10 million subscribers, reaching about 8% of all TV households in the U.S. That's a significant chunk of viewership suddenly unable to access Disney content through their usual streaming service.
Initially, it was hard to pinpoint the exact impact. For example, the ratings for ABC's primetime college football game on November 1st took a noticeable dip compared to the season average. However, attributing this entirely to the YouTube TV blackout is tricky. The game aired opposite game seven of the World Series, a major TV event, which likely drew viewers away from all college football broadcasts that night. CBS and NBC's college football games also experienced a ratings slump.
But here's where it gets controversial... Recent data paints a clearer, and potentially more concerning, picture for Disney. Looking at the numbers from the following Monday and Tuesday reveals a possible downward trend for two of ABC's flagship programs. Monday Night Football, a reliable ratings juggernaut, averaged 16.37 million viewers across ABC, ESPN, and ESPN2. While that sounds like a lot, it's significantly lower than the season average of 20.17 million viewers for six other MNF simulcasts. ABC's portion of the simulcast drew about 9.84 million viewers, marking its second-lowest total of the season, even factoring in weeks where ABC wasn't part of the simulcast. Could the YouTube TV dispute be a major factor?
Dancing With the Stars also felt the pinch. On Tuesday, the show drew 6.33 million viewers. And this is the part most people miss: while still a decent number, it represented the show's first audience decline of the entire season. This came after an impressive six-week streak of audience growth – the longest for any fall broadcast series in at least 34 years! Week-over-week, DWTS viewership dropped by about 6% (compared to 6.74 million on October 28th), and a more pronounced 10% decline occurred within the coveted 18-49 demographic (from a 1.36 rating to a 1.22). This demographic is so important because advertisers are willing to pay a premium to reach them.
To soften the blow, Disney pointed out that live streaming of Dancing With the Stars on Disney+ saw a surge on Tuesday. While they didn't provide specific figures, this suggests that some viewers affected by the YouTube TV blackout may have sought alternative ways to watch the show. This also begs the question of whether this increase in streaming numbers offsets the overall viewership loss. It's a complex puzzle with many pieces.
It's important to acknowledge that TV ratings are inherently noisy, influenced by numerous factors. For instance, the Monday Night Football game featured a less-than-thrilling matchup between two teams with losing records (the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys). Furthermore, election night coverage on Tuesday might have diverted some viewers to cable news networks. However, even a struggling Cowboys team usually attracts a large audience. Interestingly, CBS witnessed a slight audience increase in the first two hours of primetime week-to-week, while Fox remained relatively stable (full figures for NBC's live NBA coverage weren't immediately available).
So, what's the takeaway? The Disney-YouTube TV standoff appears to be impacting ABC's ratings, but quantifying the exact effect is challenging due to other contributing factors. Is it a temporary blip, or a sign of a more significant shift in viewing habits as viewers explore alternative platforms? And this is a question for you: Do you think Disney is right to stand their ground in negotiations, even if it means losing viewers in the short term? Or should they prioritize reaching as many viewers as possible, even if it means compromising on their terms? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
