Rule 5 Draft: 10 AFL Players on the Verge of a Major League Opportunity (2025)

For some Minor League players, the Arizona Fall League is their last shot at making it big. It's a high-stakes showcase where the game's brightest prospects get one final chance to impress before the offseason. But here's the twist: it's also a make-or-break moment for those facing Rule 5 Draft eligibility. These players are walking a tightrope, trying to convince their current teams they deserve a spot on the coveted 40-man roster, or alternatively, proving to the other 29 Major League organizations that they're worth a shot at the big leagues next year.

But what exactly is Rule 5 eligibility? Well, it's a bit of a numbers game. Players fall into this category if they signed their first professional contract at 18 or younger and have completed five or more seasons, or if they signed at 19 or older and have four or more seasons under their belt (as of June 5th each year). This rule adds an extra layer of complexity to the Fall League's already intense atmosphere.

Now, let's meet some of this year's Fall League players who are facing these crucial 40-man roster decisions ahead of the November deadline:

Jake Bennett, LHP, Nationals: This 6-foot-6 lefty was a second-round pick in the 2022 Draft, but his journey has been anything but smooth. Tommy John surgery sidelined him for most of 2023 and 2024, limiting his professional experience to just 138 1/3 innings. However, he's been on fire lately, posting a 2.27 ERA with 64 strikeouts across three levels, capping it off with an impressive Double-A stint. His recent performance in Scottsdale, where he struck out 17 batters with his sinking fastball and changeup, has turned heads. But will it be enough to secure his spot? The Nationals can't afford to lose a potential starter, but Bennett's injury history and limited experience make his future uncertain. And this is the part most people miss: Is it fair to gamble on a player with such a short track record, or is the potential reward worth the risk?
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Eiberson Castellano, RHP, Phillies: Castellano is no stranger to the Rule 5 Draft, having been selected by the Twins last year, only to be returned. A shoulder injury limited his regular season to just 36 1/3 innings, so the Fall League is his chance to shine. He started strong, allowing only one run over three innings in his first start. But will it be enough to convince the Phillies to protect him? Second chances are rare in baseball, but should they be more common?
Welinton Herrera, LHP, Rockies: Herrera's stats speak for themselves: a 2.64 ERA, 13.8 K/9 rate, and 17 saves at Double-A. His fastball and slider are Major League-ready, but with a new regime in Colorado, nothing is guaranteed. Does a change in management mean a clean slate for all players, or will Herrera's performance speak louder than front-office politics?
Josh Kasevich, SS, Blue Jays: Kasevich seemed destined for the Majors after a strong showing in Triple-A Buffalo in '24, but a back injury derailed his progress. He struggled upon his return, hitting just .173/.272/.184 in 114 plate appearances. Despite his exceptional discipline, his lack of power is concerning. Can a player with such a stark contrast in skills still find a place in the big leagues, or is it a case of too much risk for too little reward?
Nick Morabito, OF, Mets: Morabito's speed and defense are elite, with 108 steals and a solid .273 average at Double-A. However, his ground ball-heavy approach limits his slugging potential. In a game that's increasingly favoring power, can a player like Morabito still thrive, or does he need to adapt to survive?
Esmerlyn Valdez, OF/1B, Pirates: Valdez's 26 home runs during the regular season and strong Double-A performance make him a strong candidate for roster protection. His three homers in the first four Fall League games only reinforce this. Is Valdez a sure thing, or is there a hidden flaw that could derail his ascent?

Unranked but Noteworthy:

Wuilfredo Antunez, OF, Guardians: Signed for just $10,000, Antunez has become a standout offensive player in Cleveland's system, hitting .275/.335/.521 with 18 homers and 16 steals. His aggressive approach works, but can he maintain it at higher levels?
Johnathan Harmon, RHP, Reds: Returning from Tommy John surgery, Harmon impressed at High-A Dayton. His four-pitch mix is intriguing, but his lack of experience above A ball might keep him under the radar. Could a strong Fall League performance propel him into the spotlight?
Hueston Morrill, RHP, Yankees: Morrill, a former middle infielder, has a unique profile with a low-90s sinker and an effective cutter-slider combo. His 0.76 ERA and .118 opponent average are hard to ignore. Is Morrill the ultimate sleeper, or is his success a product of his unique background?
Jarold Rosado, RHP, White Sox: Rosado's three-pitch mix, featuring a 93-95 mph fastball and a nasty slider-changeup combo, is impressive. Acquired in a trade, he's shown potential despite a 4.45 ERA. Can he harness his stuff consistently enough to become a reliable reliever?

As we watch these players battle it out in the Fall League, one question remains: Who will rise to the occasion and secure their future in the big leagues? The answers may surprise you, and the discussions are sure to be heated. So, what's your take? Who deserves a shot, and who's facing an uphill battle?