The Trump-Xi Summit: A Game of Domestic Survival and Strategic Leverage
The recent Trump-Xi summit in Busan was more than just a diplomatic meeting; it was a strategic dance of survival for both leaders. While the handshake and praise for 'world peace' were the highlights, the real story lies in the unspoken agreements and the delicate balance of power.
The Unspoken Agreement on Taiwan
The absence of any mention of 'Taiwan' during the summit is a significant development. In the lead-up to the meeting, Beijing had been sending strong signals about its stance on Taiwan, including a media campaign and warnings of potential military action. However, once in the room, Xi Jinping chose to keep Taiwan as his trump card, avoiding any direct confrontation.
By not bringing up Taiwan, Xi maintained his leverage and avoided a public 'no' from the US, which could have undermined his recent success in easing tariffs. This strategic silence allowed him to keep his options open for future negotiations.
Trump's Immediate Gains and Xi's Strategic Positioning
Trump, on the other hand, secured immediate wins for his domestic audience. He could boast about making China resume purchases of American goods and reducing Beijing's tariff burden. This approach resonates with farmers, manufacturers, and his online supporters, who see it as a victory in an inflation-sensitive economy.
Xi's gains were more subtle but equally strategic. He suspended his rare earths restrictions, allowing the US to slow down new tech controls while talks continue. This move demonstrated Xi's ability to compromise under economic pressure and positioned Beijing to extract more concessions in the future, especially on Taiwan.
The Three Economic Headaches and the Populist Toolbox
The US-China relationship is not solely defined by great power rivalry; it's also a battle for domestic political survival. Trump, facing internal warnings about playing the 'Taiwan card', had to balance his 'America First' base with the need for Chinese concessions. He used personalist diplomacy, flattery, and tough negotiating lines to cover his walk-back on tariffs.
Similarly, Xi framed the outcome as a responsible power preventing a 'vicious cycle of mutual retaliation', showcasing his magnanimity to a nationalist audience. In Taipei, the silence during the summit is both a relief and a challenge, as it requires Taiwan to speak louder to reassure its public and deter Beijing.
The Adverse Effect of Populism
Populism, as a strategy, rewards spectacle and strong gestures, such as tariff threats and nuclear bravado. However, the actual interests of all parties involved are de-escalatory. The US seeks cheaper imports and fentanyl cooperation, while China desires tech access and markets. Taiwan wants to reduce the PLA's opportunities for miscalculation.
This clash between performance and interest leads to brittle, short-cycle arrangements. The Busan summit resulted in a managed pause, but any new PLA activity, US export blacklisting, or domestic political flare-ups could snap this fragile agreement.
The Impact on Long-Term US Policy and Taiwan
Trump's personalized approach to China policy invites Beijing to deal with the man rather than the system, leading to demands that institutions cannot fulfill. This could make future confrontations more likely, as Congress and the bureaucracy may try to claw back any concessions made.
For Taiwan, the mirroring of nationalism by both giants is dangerous. Raising its volume only strengthens Beijing's hardliners, which is the opposite of what Taiwan aims for.
The Takeaway from Busan
The summit revealed how Trump and Xi plan to navigate domestic political survival and competition. Trump will use friendship as a shield for concessions, while Xi will portray himself as a pragmatic leader despite his tough stance. Taipei will be forced to maintain a positive tone to cover its vulnerability.
In the end, populism, in its various forms, is eroding the stability needed for trade, a calm Taiwan Strait, and economic management. Understanding the US-China-Taiwan dynamics post-Busan requires focusing on the unspoken agreements and the strategic silence, rather than the headlines.
